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30 octobre, 2019

Wrong Again: 50 Years of Failed Eco-pocalyptic Predictions

Myron EbellSteven J. Milloy  September 18, 2019

Modern doomsayers have been predicting climate and environmental disaster since the 1960s. They continue to do so today.
None of the apocalyptic predictions with due dates as of today have come true.
What follows is a collection of notably wild predictions from notable people in government and science.
More than merely spotlighting the failed predictions, this collection shows that the makers of failed apocalyptic predictions often are individuals holding respected positions in government and science.
While such predictions have been and continue to be enthusiastically reported by a media eager for sensational headlines, the failures are typically not revisited.
1967: ‘Dire famine by 1975.’
1969: ‘Everyone will disappear in a cloud of blue steam by 1989.’
1970: Ice age by 2000
1970: ‘America subject to water rationing by 1974 and food rationing by 1980.’
1971: ‘New Ice Age Coming’
1972: New ice age by 2070
1974: ‘New Ice Age Coming Fast’
Source: The Guardian, January 29, 1974
1974: ‘Another Ice Age?’

Source: TIME, June 24, 1974
1974: Ozone Depletion a ‘Great Peril to Life’

But no such ‘great peril to life’ has been observed as the so-called ‘ozone hole’ remains:


Sources: Headline
NASA Data | Graph
1976: ‘The Cooling’

Source: New York Times Book Review, July 18, 1976
1980: ‘Acid Rain Kills Life in Lakes’

Noblesville Ledger (Noblesville, IN) April 9, 1980
But 10 years later, the US government program formed to study acid rain concluded:

Associated Press, September 6, 1990
1978: ‘No End in Sight’ to 30-Year Cooling Trend

Source: New York Times, January 5, 1978
But according to NASA satellite data there is a slight warming trend since 1979.

Source: DrRoySpencer.com
1988: James Hansen forecasts increase regional drought in 1990s

But the last really dry year in the Midwest was 1988, and recent years have been record wet.

Source: RealClimateScience.com
1988: Washington DC days over 90F to from 35 to 85

But the number of hot days in the DC area peaked in 1911, and have been declining ever since.

Source: RealClimateScience.com
1988: Maldives completely under water in 30 years

Source: Agence France Press, September 26, 1988
1989: Rising seas to ‘obliterate’ nations by 2000

Source: Associated Press, June 30, 1989
1989: New York City’s West Side Highway underwater by 2019

Source: Salon.com, October 23, 2001
1995 to Present: Climate Model Failure

Source: CEI.org
2000: ‘Children won’t know what snow is.’


Source: The Independent, March 20, 2000
2002: Famine in 10 years

Source: The Guardian, December 23, 2002
2004: Britain to have Siberian climate by 2020

Source: The Guardian, February 21, 2004
2008: Arctic will be ice-free by 2018

Source: Associated Press, June 24, 2008
2008: Al Gore warns of ice-free Arctic by 2013

But… it’s still there:

Source: WattsUpWithThat.com, December 16, 2018
2009: Prince Charles says only 8 years to save the planet

Source: The Independent, July 9, 2009
2009: UK prime minister says 50 days to ‘save the planet from catastrophe’

Source: The Independent: October 20, 2009
2009: Arctic ice-free by 2014

Source: USA Today, December 14, 2009
2013: Arctic ice-free by 2015

Source: The Guardian, July 24, 2013
The paper: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-017-02550-9 (open access)
Gas hydrate dissociation off Svalbard induced by isostatic rebound rather than global warming
Abstract
Methane seepage from the upper continental slopes of Western Svalbard has previously been attributed to gas hydrate dissociation induced by anthropogenic warming of ambient bottom waters. Here we show that sediment cores drilled off Prins Karls Foreland contain freshwater from dissociating hydrates. However, our modeling indicates that the observed pore water freshening began around 8 ka BP when the rate of isostatic uplift outpaced eustatic sea-level rise. The resultant local shallowing and lowering of hydrostatic pressure forced gas hydrate dissociation and dissolved chloride depletions consistent with our geochemical analysis. Hence, we propose that hydrate dissociation was triggered by postglacial isostatic rebound rather than anthropogenic warming. Furthermore, we show that methane fluxes from dissociating hydrates were considerably smaller than present methane seepage rates implying that gas hydrates were not a major source of methane to the oceans, but rather acted as a dynamic seal, regulating methane release from deep geological reservoirs.

2013: Arctic ice-free by 2016

Source: The Guardian, December 9, 2013
2014: Only 500 days before ‘climate chaos’

But…

Sources: Washington Examiner

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